Are the U.S. and China on a collision course after Biden-Xi summit?

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His subsequent problem is to steer the U.S. away from a army battle with China over the nations’ sharp ideological variations and discover a approach to maintain Xi accountable for commitments he made through the summit.

“We now have disagreements. He has a special view than I’ve on a variety of issues. However he’s been straight,” Biden mentioned of his counterpart.

Of their settlement to maintain speaking, he mentioned: “That’s an vital progress.”

“So, we’re very hopeful that it’ll have a really sensible, vital impact right here over time,” Kirby mentioned.

Fentanyl, telephone calls and pandas

However they fear the tactical détente might be short-term and may very well be superficial, as Xi seeks to shore up overseas confidence in his nation’s struggling economic system.

Colleen Cottle, a former Central Intelligence Company analyst who serves as deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s International China Hub, mentioned the summit between Biden and Xi doesn’t sign “a long-term, warming of the scenario” and will make him extra decided to realize his nation’s army and technological ambitions.

Xi’s summit with Biden got here hours earlier than he addressed CEOs of American firms at a dinner in San Francisco, the place the Asian-Pacific Financial Cooperation convention was going down. Xi steered on the dinner that he might ship extra pandas to the U.S.

“I used to be informed that many American folks, particularly youngsters, have been actually reluctant to say goodbye to the pandas and went to the zoo to see them off,” Xi mentioned.

The concept that China would lease the U.S. extra pandas, “that’s being completed with a hope that this can unlock some extra overseas funding or ease the minds of buyers,” Cottle mentioned. 

In terms of dominating the world’s economic system, China can’t be counted on to play by the foundations, with none guardrails, Senate Overseas Relations Committee Chairman Ben Cardin, D-Md., mentioned in an interview.

However he mentioned there’s a “affordable likelihood” that Xi will observe by on his pledges to renew military-to-military communications and sluggish the move of fentanyl.

The Trump administration additionally scored a deal on fentanyl with China that was meant to considerably curb overdose deaths and didn’t have the supposed impact. 

“I believe the military-to-military channels could be useful, if achievable,” the Republican congressman and frequent Biden critic mentioned.

Is confrontation inevitable?

Biden emphasised after his assembly with Xi on Wednesday at a secluded property outdoors San Francisco that the connection has not developed right into a battle, but, and mentioned he was positive that Xi totally understands there could be penalties for a confrontation.

He mentioned he additionally warned Xi to not intrude in Taiwan’s election.

Washington and Beijing should not essentially on a army collision course, mentioned former U.S. Ambassador to China Gary Locke.

“Unstoppable may imply 30 years from now, 20 years from now, 15 years from now, would not essentially imply it should be completed by pressure,” Locke mentioned.

Locke, who was ambassador to China and U.S. Commerce secretary through the Obama administration, mentioned laborious and quick agreements have been by no means anticipated to come back out of the assembly. Nonetheless, it was needed for the leaders to have a dialog in regards to the areas of disagreement and “get it out within the open.”

‘A really harmful scenario’

“Any pressure, army kind motion could be completely unacceptable,” Cardin mentioned of China’s provocations. “And I believe you are going see Congress take some steps within the subsequent couple of weeks to underscore the significance of Taiwan being protected against such kind of potential aggression.”

The U.S. has mentioned that China is gearing as much as have the army functionality to invade Taiwan by 2027. McCaul mentioned he believes the timeline may very well be “accelerated,” relying on the result of the island’s January election. 

“It may occur throughout the subsequent yr,” McCaul warned.

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